COT Analysis Blog
Weekly analysis of CFTC Commitment of Traders data across 41 futures markets.
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Why Fertilizer Prices Matter for Grain Markets — COT & WASDE
Nitrogen fertilizer is the single largest variable cost in corn and wheat production. When fertilizer prices rise, planting decisions shift, WASDE supply estimates adjust, and COT positioning follows. Here is the full chain explained.
COT Mar 24 – 2Y Treasury Shorts Hit Record Low
2-year Treasury net shorts reached -1.64M contracts (1st percentile, Z-score -3.11) — the most extreme position in the 10-year dataset. Australian Dollar net longs hit 99th percentile as hedge funds crowd the long side.
COT Mar 17 – 2Y Treasury Shorts & AUD Extremes
Australian Dollar net longs reached 99th percentile (both 2Y and 10Y) while 2Y Treasury shorts hit 1st percentile—the lowest in the full dataset. Free weekly COT breakdown.
COT Mar 10 – FX Extremes & Treasury Divergence
Australian Dollar and Canadian Dollar both hit 99th percentile net longs while British Pound sank to 1st percentile — the widest FX positioning spread in the 2-year sample.
WASDE Mar 2026 – Specs Long Despite Comfortable Supply
Corn and soybean specs hold extreme long positions (89th and 97th percentiles) despite US stocks-to-use ratios above 5-year averages — world tightening may explain the positioning divergence.
How to Combine COT Data with Supply & Demand Analysis
COT Analysis Mar 3 – AUD & CAD Multi-Year Highs
Free weekly COT analysis: Australian Dollar reached 99th percentile (Z-score +2.76), the most crowded net long in 107 weeks. Canadian Dollar followed at 98th percentile. Natural Gas held extreme net short (1st percentile).
COT Analysis Feb 24 – AUD 99th & Metal Lows
Free weekly COT analysis: Australian Dollar reached 99th percentile (Z-score +2.50) while precious metals hit multi-year positioning lows. Natural Gas at 1st percentile with net short crowding at -12.3% of open interest.
Gold COT Report: How to Read Speculative Positioning in Gold
Gold futures (GC) are the most-watched commodity in the CFTC Commitment of Traders report. This guide explains how speculative positioning in gold works, what drives large moves in net long or short positions, and how to use historical extremes as a reference point.
How to Read the COT Report — I Built a Live Excel Dashboard Pulling 11 Years of CFTC Data
The CFTC publishes Commitment of Traders data every Friday. I built an Excel dashboard that auto-refreshes weekly, covers 41 markets, calculates a 52-week COT Index, and flags positioning extremes automatically. Here is exactly how it works.
Free COT Report Analysis Feb 17 – Currencies Hits Multi-Year Highs, Metals & Softs Near Lows
Free weekly COT analysis: Australian Dollar reached 99th percentile (net long 45,931), while Gold (2nd percentile), Natural Gas, Coffee, and Sugar sit near 2-year lows. FX markets show extreme net long positioning across AUD, CAD, and EUR.
Commercial vs Non-Commercial Traders: What's the Difference?
The COT report splits market participants into three groups. Understanding who commercials and non-commercials are — and why they trade — is the foundation of reading the data correctly.
Understanding COT Data for FX (Currency) Markets
Nine major currency futures are covered in our COT dashboard, from EUR to NZD. This guide explains which pairs are included, how FX positioning differs from commodity markets, and what extreme readings have historically looked like.
COT Data Limitations: What It Can't Tell You
The COT report is a useful positioning tool — but it has real constraints that are easy to overlook. This post covers six things the data cannot tell you, and what to use instead.
COT Report vs Other Sentiment Indicators
The COT report is one of several sentiment tools available to traders. Here is how it compares to surveys, options data, and fund manager polls — and when each is most useful.
Do Extreme COT Positions Predict Reversals?
Extreme speculative positioning is one of the most cited signals in COT analysis. Here is what the evidence actually shows — and what traders consistently get wrong about using it.
FAQ: COT Data for Beginners
Plain answers to the most common questions about the COT report — what it is, how to read it, where to find it, and what to watch out for.
History of the CFTC and COT Report
The COT report has been tracking futures market positioning for over 60 years. Here is how it started, how it evolved, and why the 2009 disaggregated format changed what analysts could see.
How Hedge Funds Use COT Data
Professional traders do not use COT data to generate buy and sell signals. They use it to filter trades, manage risk, and identify when markets are stretched. Here is how.
Seasonal Patterns in Futures Positioning
Certain futures markets show recurring positioning tendencies tied to the calendar — planting seasons, driving seasons, year-end flows. Here is what the patterns look like and how reliable they actually are.
Understanding COT Data for Grains & Softs Markets
Twelve agricultural futures are tracked across our dashboard — from Corn and Soybeans to Coffee, Cocoa, and Live Cattle. This guide explains how seasonal patterns, weather events, and export demand shape COT positioning in this category.
Understanding COT Data for Metals Markets
Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum are the four metals futures tracked in our dashboard. This guide explains how speculative positioning differs across precious and industrial metals, what drives extreme readings, and what the data does and does not tell you.
Understanding COT Data for Bond Markets
Four US Treasury futures are tracked across the yield curve — 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y. This guide explains how speculative positioning in bonds works, what drives positioning along different parts of the curve, and how to read yield curve signals from COT data.
Glossary of COT & Futures Terms: Plain-English Definitions
Net long, open interest, large speculator, Z-score — a reference glossary of the terms used in COT report analysis, defined without jargon.
Understanding COT Data for Crypto Markets
Bitcoin and Micro Ethereum futures are the two crypto markets tracked in our dashboard. This guide explains what CME crypto futures COT data measures, why it differs from spot crypto positioning, and how to interpret speculative positioning in this relatively young dataset.
Understanding COT Data for Energy Markets
Five energy futures are tracked in our dashboard: Crude Oil WTI, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB, and Ethanol. This guide covers what drives positioning in each market, how they relate to one another, and the quirks you need to know before reading energy COT data.
Understanding COT Data for Equity Index Markets
Five equity index futures are tracked in our dashboard — S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, and VIX. This guide explains how speculative positioning in index futures works, the inverse relationship between VIX and equity positioning, and what extreme readings have historically looked like.
COT Report Schedule & Release Times: When Does the CFTC Publish?
The CFTC publishes the Commitment of Traders report every Friday at 3:30 PM ET. But the data itself is from the previous Tuesday. Here's exactly what that means and why it matters.
How to Read COT Data: Step-by-Step Guide to Commitment of Traders Report
A practical walkthrough of reading COT report data — from raw CFTC numbers to net positions, percentiles, and what they actually tell you about market positioning.
What Are Percentile Rankings in COT Data?
Percentile rankings show how extreme a trader group's net position is relative to every historical week on record. A 99th percentile reading means the position is larger than 99% of all prior weeks. Here's how to read them.
Free COT Report Analysis Feb 10 – FX Extremes, Commodity Capitulation & Treasury Weakness
Free weekly COT analysis: Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Euro FX all reached 99th percentile net long positions, while Cocoa, Coffee, and Sugar hit 1st percentile extremes. Gold and Silver remain near 2-year lows at 3rd percentile.
What Is the COT Report? A Trader's Guide to CFTC Data
The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly snapshot of how institutional players are positioned in futures markets. Here's what it contains, who publishes it, and why it matters.
COT Positioning Report: Week of February 3, 2026
Treasury complex shows significant short position reductions across all maturities, with 2Y contracts declining 10.55%. Australian Dollar positioning surges 265.49% while equity indices register sharp positioning contractions.