Free COT Report Analysis Feb 10 – FX Extremes, Commodity Capitulation & Treasury Weakness
Feb 10, 2026
Executive Summary
Last week's analysis showed building pressure in currency markets and continued precious metals weakness. This week delivered confirmation: three major currencies—Australian Dollar (99th percentile), Canadian Dollar (99th percentile), and Euro FX (99th percentile)—simultaneously reached near 2-year highs in net long positioning. Meanwhile, soft commodities capitulated to extreme net short territory, with Cocoa, Coffee C, and Sugar #11 all at the 1st percentile, and precious metals remained pinned near their lows with Gold (3rd percentile) and Silver (3rd percentile).
Methodology & Data Source
- Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy Format)
- Analysis: Non-Commercial traders (large speculators — hedge funds, asset managers)
- Percentiles: Empirical ranking over 105 weeks | Full Methodology →
- 📥 Download this week's data (JSON)
- 📊 View Interactive Dashboard →
What Stood Out This Week
This week's standout finding was the synchronized extreme net long positioning across major G10 currencies. We observed three currencies simultaneously at the 99th percentile—a rare confluence that suggests coordinated dollar weakness positioning by large speculators. The Australian Dollar reached 33,209 contracts (Z-score: 2.10), sitting 81,080 contracts above its 105-week average, while Canadian Dollar positioning at 13,276 contracts showed an even more dramatic deviation (Z-score: 2.35), standing 118,650 contracts above its historical mean. This represents among the most concentrated anti-dollar bets in the past two years across multiple currency pairs.
Top 10 Extreme Positions
The following table shows the 10 most extreme positions relative to their 105-week history:
| Rank | Market | Net Position | Percentile | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cocoa | -18,946 | 1st | -2.52 |
| 2 | Canadian Dollar | 13,276 | 99th | 2.35 |
| 3 | Coffee C | 13,931 | 1st | -2.30 |
| 4 | Sugar #11 | -235,401 | 1st | -2.29 |
| 5 | Silver | 22,955 | 3rd | -2.25 |
| 6 | Australian Dollar | 33,209 | 99th | 2.10 |
| 7 | Gasoline RBOB | 89,956 | 96th | 1.99 |
| 8 | Euro FX | 180,305 | 99th | 1.88 |
| 9 | Natural Gas | -171,865 | 4th | -1.84 |
| 10 | Gold | 160,012 | 3rd | -1.79 |
Extreme Positions Deep Dive
Foreign Exchange: Coordinated Dollar Weakness
The FX complex delivered the week's clearest narrative. Three major currencies reached the 99th percentile simultaneously: Australian Dollar at 33,209 contracts, Canadian Dollar at 13,276 contracts, and Euro FX at 180,305 contracts. The Euro position represents a 125,542-contract deviation above its 105-week average, while the Canadian Dollar's Z-score of 2.35 indicates this is among the most extreme net long positions in the entire dataset.
What makes this particularly notable is the breadth. The Australian Dollar gained 117,368 contracts versus its 4-week average and 122,970 contracts versus its 13-week average, suggesting recent acceleration rather than gradual accumulation. These positions reflect large speculator conviction that the dollar will weaken across commodity, European, and North American currency pairs.
Soft Commodities: Capitulation Territory
The soft commodity complex showed the opposite extreme—widespread capitulation to extreme net short positions. Cocoa reached -18,946 contracts (1st percentile, Z-score: -2.52), sitting 40,444 contracts below its historical average. Coffee C at 13,931 contracts hit the 1st percentile with a Z-score of -2.30, down 37,463 contracts from its 105-week mean. Sugar #11 delivered the largest absolute extreme net short at -235,401 contracts (1st percentile, Z-score: -2.29).
This represents a complete reversal from earlier positioning in these markets. The simultaneous extreme net short positioning across three major soft commodities suggests systematic liquidation by large speculators rather than market-specific factors.
Precious Metals: Persistent Weakness
Gold and Silver remained anchored near 2-year lows. Gold at 160,012 contracts sat at the 3rd percentile (Z-score: -1.79), down 72,012 contracts from its 105-week average. Silver at 22,955 contracts showed even more pronounced weakness at the 3rd percentile with a Z-score of -2.25, standing 25,023 contracts below its historical mean.
The persistence of these extreme net long levels (though low relative to history) contrasts sharply with the precious metals' traditional role as dollar hedges. With FX markets showing extreme net long positions against the dollar, the lack of corresponding gold strength presents a positioning puzzle.
Energy: Mixed Signals
Energy markets showed divergence. Gasoline RBOB reached the 96th percentile at 89,956 contracts (Z-score: 1.99), sitting 39,776 contracts above its 105-week average. Natural Gas moved in the opposite direction, reaching -171,865 contracts at the 4th percentile (Z-score: -1.84), down 54,826 contracts from its historical mean. Crude Oil WTI remained relatively subdued at 117,814 contracts (24th percentile), suggesting large speculators lack conviction in the crude complex despite refined product strength.
Top Weekly Changes
The Treasury complex dominated the largest absolute position changes this week, though none reached percentile extremes. The 5Y Treasury saw the largest shift at -2,114,764 contracts, sitting 869,085 contracts below its 4-week average and 904,451 contracts below its 13-week average. This placed it at the 40th percentile—neutral territory relative to history despite the large absolute size.
The 2Y Treasury at -1,289,687 contracts showed similar dynamics, sitting 292,037 contracts below its 4-week average and landing at the 28th percentile. The 10Y Treasury reached -813,027 contracts (44th percentile), down 135,164 contracts from its 4-week average.
These changes reflect systematic reduction in net short Treasury positions by large speculators, though the absolute levels remain elevated. The 30Y Treasury provided the counterpoint, reaching -92 contracts at the 89th percentile—essentially neutral positioning after unwinding previous shorts.
Among currencies, the Australian Dollar's move to 33,209 contracts represented a gain of 117,368 contracts versus its 4-week average—the largest relative currency shift of the week and sufficient to push it to the 99th percentile.
Category Breakdown
FX (9 markets)
Currency positioning showed the most extreme readings of any asset class this week. Three markets reached the 99th percentile: Australian Dollar (33,209 contracts), Canadian Dollar (13,276 contracts), and Euro FX (180,305 contracts). This represents synchronized net long positioning against the dollar across commodity, North American, and European currencies.
The remaining six currency markets showed more subdued positioning. British Pound at -25,810 contracts sat at the 18th percentile, representing a net short position. Japanese Yen reached -19,106 contracts (35th percentile), while Swiss Franc at -42,259 contracts landed at the 15th percentile. Mexican Peso (84,951 contracts, 68th percentile) and Brazilian Real (31,643 contracts, 66th percentile) showed moderate net long positions. New Zealand Dollar at -34,919 contracts (32nd percentile) diverged from its Australian counterpart with a net short position.
Metals (4 markets)
The metals complex split between industrial and precious. Copper at 45,873 contracts reached the 73rd percentile, sitting 13,384 contracts above its 105-week average (Z-score: 0.72). Platinum at 12,084 contracts showed modest positioning at the 20th percentile.
Gold and Silver remained at extreme lows. Gold's 160,012 contracts placed it at the 3rd percentile, down 72,012 contracts from its historical average. Silver at 22,955 contracts also hit the 3rd percentile, down 25,023 contracts from its 105-week mean. These represent among the lowest net long positions in the past two years for both precious metals.
Energy (5 markets)
Energy markets showed divergence between refined products and underlying commodities. Gasoline RBOB reached 89,956 contracts at the 96th percentile, up 39,776 contracts from its 105-week average (Z-score: 1.99). Heating Oil at 19,452 contracts sat at the 81st percentile. Ethanol showed moderate positioning at 6,970 contracts (74th percentile).
Natural Gas provided the opposite extreme at -171,865 contracts (4th percentile), down 54,826 contracts from its historical average (Z-score: -1.84). Crude Oil WTI at 117,814 contracts remained subdued at the 24th percentile, down 60,057 contracts from its 105-week mean.
Grains (12 markets)
The grain complex showed the widest dispersion of any category. Three soft commodities hit the 1st percentile: Cocoa (-18,946 contracts), Coffee C (13,931 contracts), and Sugar #11 (-235,401 contracts). All three showed extreme net short or extremely low net long positions relative to their 105-week histories.
Soybeans provided the counterpoint at 146,334 contracts (91st percentile), up 164,341 contracts from its historical average (Z-score: 1.48). Lean Hogs reached 82,895 contracts at the 85th percentile, while Soybean Oil at 53,277 contracts hit the 75th percentile.
The remaining grain markets clustered around neutral territory: Corn (-18,330 contracts, 56th percentile), Wheat HRW (-19,953 contracts, 59th percentile), Wheat SRW (-71,258 contracts, 39th percentile), Soybean Meal (11,372 contracts, 65th percentile), Feeder Cattle (8,881 contracts, 50th percentile), and Live Cattle (85,756 contracts, 47th percentile).
Index (5 markets)
Equity index positioning remained compressed near historical midpoints. S&P 500 at -100,714 contracts sat at the 38th percentile, down 20,697 contracts from its 105-week average. Nasdaq 100 reached 12,642 contracts at the 38th percentile, while Dow Jones at 1,433 contracts landed at the 40th percentile.
Russell 2000 provided the exception at 7,061 contracts (89th percentile), up 32,524 contracts from its historical mean. VIX futures positioning at -65,088 contracts reached the 27th percentile, down 20,248 contracts from its 105-week average.
Bonds (4 markets)
Treasury positioning showed large absolute changes but moderate percentile rankings. The 5Y Treasury at -2,114,764 contracts sat at the 40th percentile despite being down 869,085 contracts from its 4-week average. The 2Y Treasury reached -1,289,687 contracts at the 28th percentile, while the 10Y Treasury at -813,027 contracts landed at the 44th percentile.
The 30Y Treasury diverged at -92 contracts (89th percentile), essentially neutral after unwinding previous net short positions. This positioned it 44,065 contracts above its 105-week average.
Crypto (2 markets)
Bitcoin at 1,017 contracts reached the 93rd percentile, up 1,573 contracts from its historical average (Z-score: 1.57). Micro Ethereum at -3,677 contracts sat at the 22nd percentile, down 1,218 contracts from its 105-week mean.
Historical Context
Z-scores provide perspective on how unusual current positions are relative to their historical distributions. Canadian Dollar's Z-score of 2.35 indicates the current net long position sits more than two standard deviations above its mean—a statistically rare event that occurs roughly 1% of the time in a normal distribution.
Cocoa's Z-score of -2.52 shows even more extreme deviation on the net short side. This represents among the most extreme net short positions in the 105-week dataset for this market. Coffee C (Z-score: -2.30) and Sugar #11 (Z-score: -2.29) showed similar extremes.
The 13-week moving averages reveal acceleration patterns. Australian Dollar positioned 122,970 contracts above its 13-week average suggests recent building rather than sustained positioning. Similarly, the 5Y Treasury positioned 904,451 contracts below its 13-week average indicates systematic reduction in net short Treasury bets by large speculators.
Comparing current readings to the full 105-week distribution shows we're observing multiple 2-standard-deviation events simultaneously—a relatively rare occurrence that suggests either coordinated macro positioning or systematic factor exposure across large speculators.
📍 Key Questions for Next Week
Will the synchronized extreme net long currency positioning across Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Euro FX continue expanding, or has large speculator positioning reached saturation levels that precede reversal? With all three markets at the 99th percentile, there's limited historical room for further expansion.
Can Gold and Silver remain pinned at the 3rd percentile while FX markets show extreme dollar weakness? This divergence between traditional dollar hedges presents a positioning puzzle—either precious metals will eventually follow currencies higher, or currency positioning will prove premature.
Will soft commodity capitulation (Cocoa, Coffee, Sugar all at 1st percentile) mark a bottoming process, or does the synchronized extreme net short positioning indicate large speculators expect further fundamental deterioration? Historical 1st percentile readings have preceded both reversals and extended trends.
Does the Treasury complex's move toward neutral territory (30Y at 89th percentile, others at 28th-44th) signal large speculators are reducing their rate view conviction, or does this represent tactical repositioning ahead of further moves?
Educational Notes
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report tracks weekly positioning by different trader categories in U.S. futures markets. This analysis focuses on Non-Commercial traders—large speculators including hedge funds, asset managers, and institutional accounts—whose positioning often reflects macro views and risk sentiment.
Percentile rankings show where current positioning sits relative to the past 105 weeks (roughly two years). A 99th percentile reading means the current net position is higher than 99% of all weekly readings in that period—indicating an extreme net long position. Conversely, a 1st percentile reading indicates an extreme net short position or extremely low net long position relative to history.
Z-scores measure how many standard deviations the current position sits from its historical mean. Readings above +2 or below -2 are considered statistically unusual and occur roughly 5% of the time in normal distributions.
Historical analysis shows
