Free COT Report Analysis Feb 17 – Currencies Hits Multi-Year Highs, Metals & Softs Near Lows
Feb 17, 2026
Executive Summary
Last week's analysis showed emerging strength in select currencies. This week, that trend accelerated dramatically. Currency markets dominated the extremes list, with Australian Dollar (99th percentile, net 45,931 contracts), Canadian Dollar (99th percentile, net 25,826), and Euro FX (99th percentile, net 174,480) all reaching near 2-year positioning highs. Meanwhile, precious metals showed continued weakness with Gold at the 2nd percentile (net 159,915) and Silver at the 4th percentile (net 24,003), joined by soft commodities Coffee (1st percentile), Sugar (1st percentile), and Natural Gas (1st percentile) in historically extreme net short territory.
Methodology & Data Source
- Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy Format)
- Analysis: Non-Commercial traders (large speculators — hedge funds, asset managers)
- Percentiles: Empirical ranking over 105 weeks | Full Methodology →
- 📥 Download this week's data (JSON)
- 📊 View Interactive Dashboard →
What Stood Out This Week
This week's standout finding was the coordinated extreme net long positioning across major currency pairs, with three FX markets simultaneously reaching the 99th percentile — a configuration we observe only rarely in the 105-week dataset. Australian Dollar advanced 130,090 contracts above its 4-week average to reach 45,931 net long (Z-score: 2.41), while Canadian Dollar showed even more pronounced deviation at 25,826 contracts (Z-score: 2.58). The synchronization suggests broad portfolio reallocation toward these currencies, with all three showing gains exceeding 119,000 contracts versus their 105-week historical means.
📊 Top 10 Most Extreme Positions
The following table shows the 10 most extreme positions relative to their 105-week history:
| Rank | Market | Net Position | Percentile | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australian Dollar | 45,931 | 99th | 2.41 |
| 2 | Bitcoin | 1,638 | 99th | 2.16 |
| 3 | Canadian Dollar | 25,826 | 99th | 2.58 |
| 4 | Coffee C | 12,860 | 1st | -2.36 |
| 5 | Euro FX | 174,480 | 99th | 1.79 |
| 6 | Natural Gas | -185,812 | 1st | -2.29 |
| 7 | Sugar #11 | -253,592 | 1st | -2.46 |
| 8 | Cocoa | -17,618 | 2nd | -2.44 |
| 9 | Gold | 159,915 | 2nd | -1.80 |
| 10 | Silver | 24,003 | 4th | -2.16 |
Extreme Positions Deep Dive
FX Markets: Extreme Net Long Concentration
Currency positioning presents the most pronounced extremes this week. Australian Dollar's 99th percentile reading represents a deviation of 93,681 contracts above its 105-week average — among the largest sustained net long positions we've observed in this market. The position expanded 130,090 contracts beyond the 4-week moving average and 135,692 contracts above the 13-week baseline. Canadian Dollar showed similarly extreme characteristics with a Z-score of 2.58, indicating positioning more than 2.5 standard deviations above historical norms.
Euro FX completed the currency triumvirate at 174,480 net long contracts (99th percentile). While the Z-score of 1.79 was somewhat lower than AUD and CAD, the absolute magnitude remains substantial — 119,772 contracts above the full-period average. Bitcoin also reached the 99th percentile at 1,638 net long contracts (Z-score: 2.16), marking one of the highest crypto positioning readings in the available dataset.
Precious Metals: Persistent Net Short Positioning
Gold and Silver occupied opposite extremes. Gold's net position of 159,915 contracts sits at the 2nd percentile — 72,108 contracts below its 105-week mean with a Z-score of -1.80. This represents among the lowest net long positioning we've tracked over the past two years. Silver showed even more pronounced weakness at 24,003 contracts (4th percentile, Z-score: -2.16), sitting 23,985 contracts below its historical average. The coordination between these two metals suggests systematic positioning rather than market-specific factors.
For background on how gold speculative positioning works and what historical extremes have typically meant, see the Gold COT Report guide.
Soft Commodities: Historic Net Short Extremes
The softs complex showed the most extreme net short readings. Sugar #11 reached the 1st percentile at -253,592 contracts, representing a deviation of -239,573 contracts from the 105-week mean (Z-score: -2.46). Coffee C similarly hit the 1st percentile at net 12,860 contracts, but this reflects extreme net long positioning at -38,523 contracts below its historical average (Z-score: -2.36). Cocoa rounded out the complex at the 2nd percentile with -17,618 net contracts (Z-score: -2.44).
Energy: Natural Gas Outlier
Natural Gas dominated energy extremes at -185,812 contracts (1st percentile), sitting 68,640 contracts below its 105-week average with a Z-score of -2.29. This contrasted sharply with Gasoline RBOB, which reached the 95th percentile at 88,742 contracts — 38,573 above its historical mean. Crude Oil WTI remained relatively neutral at 141,343 contracts (28th percentile), suggesting divergent positioning strategies within the energy complex.
Top Weekly Changes
Treasury markets dominated absolute position changes, though the data showed substantial recent volatility. The 10-Year Treasury net position reached -877,853 contracts (25th percentile), reflecting a decrease of 199,990 contracts versus the 4-week average and 345,625 contracts below the 13-week baseline. The 5-Year Treasury showed even larger absolute positioning at -2,157,242 contracts (39th percentile), down 911,563 contracts from the 4-week mean.
Among non-Treasury markets, the 30-Year bond stood out with a positive 6,425 net position (91st percentile) — up 61,775 contracts versus the 4-week average and 43,021 above the 13-week mean. This divergence from intermediate-duration Treasuries suggests specific curve positioning strategies among large speculators.
The 2-Year Treasury reached -1,234,408 contracts (44th percentile), down 236,758 from the 4-week baseline. While these Treasury changes represent large absolute contract movements, their percentile rankings in the 25th-44th range indicate they remain within typical historical ranges despite recent volatility.
Category Breakdown
FX (9 markets): Three markets at 99th percentile (Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Euro FX), while British Pound languished at the 7th percentile with -42,404 contracts (60,350 below its mean). Japanese Yen showed neutral positioning at 12,955 contracts (45th percentile). Mexican Peso and Brazilian Real both reached the 67th percentile with net long positions of 84,122 and 34,662 respectively. Swiss Franc and New Zealand Dollar remained in net short territory at the 21st and 30th percentiles.
Metals (4 markets): Copper provided the bright spot at 59,331 contracts (90th percentile, Z-score: 1.43), sitting 26,714 contracts above its historical average. Gold (2nd percentile) and Silver (4th percentile) showed coordinated weakness. Platinum remained neutral-bearish at 12,347 contracts (21st percentile).
Energy (5 markets): Natural Gas (1st percentile) and Gasoline RBOB (95th percentile) anchored opposite extremes. Crude Oil WTI, Heating Oil, and Ethanol clustered in the 28th-73rd percentile range, suggesting no strong directional conviction in the broader energy complex.
Grains (12 markets): Soybeans reached the 93rd percentile at 191,791 contracts — 209,365 above the 105-week mean (Z-score: 1.88). Soybean Oil (73rd percentile) and Soybean Meal (71st percentile) showed related strength. Sugar #11 (1st percentile), Coffee C (1st percentile), and Cocoa (2nd percentile) dominated the weak end. Wheat HRW stood at the 82nd percentile, while Corn, Feeder Cattle, Lean Hogs, and Live Cattle clustered near neutral (53rd-62nd percentiles).
Index (5 markets): S&P 500 reached the 13th percentile at -173,234 contracts, sitting 92,526 contracts below its mean (Z-score: -1.17). VIX showed the 22nd percentile at -71,817 contracts. Dow Jones also remained in net short territory at -1,535 (23rd percentile). Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 hovered near neutral at the 61st and 65th percentiles respectively.
Bonds (4 markets): The 30-Year Treasury (91st percentile) diverged sharply from the 10-Year (25th), 5-Year (39th), and 2-Year (44th), creating a curve positioning pattern with net longs concentrated at the long end.
Crypto (2 markets): Bitcoin reached the 99th percentile at 1,638 contracts (Z-score: 2.16), while Micro Ethereum sat at the 20th percentile with -3,922 contracts.
Historical Context
The 105-week dataset provides robust context for current extremes. Z-scores exceeding ±2.0 occurred in seven markets this week — Australian Dollar (2.41), Canadian Dollar (2.58), Bitcoin (2.16), Coffee C (-2.36), Natural Gas (-2.29), Sugar #11 (-2.46), and Cocoa (-2.44). These readings indicate positioning more than two standard deviations from historical means, occurring roughly 5% of the time in normal distributions.
We observe that coordinated FX extremes of this magnitude have appeared only a handful of times in the 105-week window. The last comparable instance occurred during Q2 2025, when similar currencies reached extreme net long positioning ahead of a subsequent consolidation period. The current configuration shows even higher Z-scores, suggesting positioning may be reaching stretched levels relative to recent history.
Treasury positioning showed volatility but remained within one standard deviation of historical norms across most maturities. The 10-Year Treasury's -877,853 contract position sits 345,625 contracts below the 13-week average, but its 25th percentile ranking indicates this level has been reached or exceeded 75% of the time over the past two years.
Precious metals positioning at the 2nd and 4th percentiles for Gold and Silver respectively represents among the lowest net long exposure in the full dataset. Only one or two weeks showed lower readings over the past 105 weeks, suggesting speculative interest has reached multi-year lows.
📍 Key Questions for Next Week
Can FX positioning extend further, or do 99th percentile readings represent exhaustion levels? With Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and Euro FX simultaneously at statistical extremes, we'll monitor whether large speculators continue adding to these positions or begin scaling back.
Will precious metals positioning stabilize near current lows, or does the 2nd-4th percentile range attract fresh net long interest? Historical patterns suggest extremes often precede mean reversion, though timing remains uncertain.
Does the divergence between 30-Year Treasury (91st percentile) and intermediate-duration notes (25th-44th percentiles) persist? This curve positioning may reflect specific yield curve views or hedging strategies worth tracking in coming weeks.
Can soft commodities exit their extreme net short territory? Sugar, Coffee, and Cocoa all sit at or near the 1st-2nd percentiles — a configuration we've observed only rarely. Whether these positions unwind or persist will provide insight into speculative conviction.
Educational Notes
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report tracks futures market positioning across commercial hedgers, large speculators (non-commercial traders), and small traders. This analysis focuses on non-commercial traders — typically hedge funds, asset managers, and other large speculative entities whose positioning can provide insight into market sentiment.
Percentile rankings show where current positioning sits relative to the past 105 weeks. A 99th percentile reading means the current net position is higher than 99% of all weekly readings in that period, while a 1st percentile indicates it's lower than 99% of observations. These extremes often (though not always) precede mean reversion, as positioning becomes statistically crowded.
Z-scores measure how many standard deviations current positioning sits from the historical mean. Readings beyond ±2.0 indicate unusual positioning that occurs roughly 5% of the time in normal distributions. However, markets can remain at extremes longer than statistical models suggest, and extreme positioning does not guarantee directional price movements.
COT data reflects positions as of Tuesday's close, released Friday afternoon. The data provides sentiment context but does not account for price levels, fundamental factors, or non-futures exposure (such as spot markets or options). Extreme positioning may reflect hedging activity, carry trades, or other strategies unrelated to directional views.
Closing
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Check back next Friday for the latest COT report analysis, where we'll track whether currency extremes extend further or begin reverting toward historical means.
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