COT Analysis Feb 24 – AUD 99th & Metal Lows
Feb 24, 2026
Previous week's analysis highlighted positioning shifts across treasury and energy markets. This week, the standout pattern is a cluster of extreme readings in FX and commodities, with Australian Dollar hitting its highest positioning level in the 106-week sample while precious metals and soft commodities reached near-lows.
Methodology & Data Source
- Source: CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Legacy Format)
- Analysis: Non-Commercial traders (large speculators — hedge funds, asset managers)
- Percentiles: Empirical ranking over 106 weeks | Full Methodology →
- 📥 Download this week's data (JSON)
- 📊 View Interactive Dashboard →
What Stood Out This Week
Australian Dollar positioning reached 99th percentile (Z-score +2.50) with net longs at 52,644 contracts, representing 21.2% of total open interest (crowding ratio). The build has been sustained across both 4-week (+136,803) and 13-week (+142,405) averages, indicating structural accumulation rather than tactical positioning. Meanwhile, precious metals show the opposite extreme: Gold at 2nd percentile and Silver at 1st percentile, with net long exposure near multi-year lows within this sample.
Top 10 Extreme Positions
The following table shows the 10 most extreme positions relative to their 106-week history:
| Rank | Market | Net Position | Percentile | Z-Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Australian Dollar | 52,644 | 99th | +2.50 |
| 2 | Canadian Dollar | 27,578 | 99th | +2.52 |
| 3 | Coffee C | 12,814 | 1st | -2.29 |
| 4 | Gasoline RBOB | 98,792 | 99th | +2.36 |
| 5 | Natural Gas | -198,519 | 1st | -2.61 |
| 6 | Silver | 22,260 | 1st | -2.25 |
| 7 | Sugar #11 | -246,123 | 1st | -2.31 |
| 8 | Wheat (HRW) | 8,266 | 99th | +1.99 |
| 9 | Gold | 159,177 | 2nd | -1.78 |
| 10 | British Pound | -57,072 | 5th | -1.58 |
Extreme Positions Deep Dive
Australian Dollar sits at 99th percentile with the most concentrated net long crowding among FX majors. Non-commercial traders hold net longs representing 21.2% of open interest, while commercials hold -31.1% net short (hedging intensity). The positioning build has been sustained: the current level is +136,803 contracts above the 4-week average and +142,405 above the 13-week average, indicating persistent accumulation over three months rather than a tactical spike.
Canadian Dollar mirrors the Australian positioning pattern at 99th percentile (Z-score +2.52), though with lower crowding concentration at 12.4% of open interest. The build speed follows a similar profile: +40,816 vs 4-week average and +75,039 vs 13-week average. Both commodity currencies are now at positioning extremes rarely seen within this 106-week sample.
Gold and Silver show the inverse configuration. Gold sits at 2nd percentile with net longs of 159,177 contracts (37.9% of open interest), while Silver is at 1st percentile with net longs at 22,260 (17.7% of open interest). Both markets reflect washed-out speculative interest rather than net short crowding — the positioning is still net long, but at levels seen only once or twice in the past two years. Commercial net short positions remain elevated (Gold: -200,806 contracts, Silver: -41,080), indicating persistent hedging activity against low speculative demand.
Natural Gas reached 1st percentile with net positioning at -198,519 contracts, representing meaningful net short crowding at -12.3% of open interest. The current reading is -117,939 contracts below the full-period average (Z-score -2.61). This is concentrated net short exposure, not limited participation. The 4-week deviation (-71,254) and 13-week deviation (-81,195) show sustained short accumulation rather than a single-week spike.
Coffee C sits at 1st percentile despite holding a small net long position of 12,814 contracts. Within the 106-week sample, this represents one of the lowest levels of net long exposure observed. The crowding ratio is modest at 7.8% of open interest, but the Z-score of -2.29 indicates a meaningful deviation from historical norms. The build has been sustained: -41,552 vs 4-week average and -48,830 vs 13-week average.
Sugar #11 shows the most extreme soft commodity positioning with net shorts of -246,123 contracts (1st percentile, Z-score -2.31). This is concentrated net short crowding, not washed-out longs. The positioning is -80,906 contracts below the full-period average, and the multi-week deviations (-73,643 vs 4-week, -75,337 vs 13-week) confirm persistent short accumulation rather than tactical positioning.
"So What?" — Positioning Scenarios
Australian Dollar (99th percentile, Z-score: +2.50)
- If price continues to make higher highs while positioning remains at this extreme, then the crowding is "working" and may persist — though within this 106-week sample, readings beyond Z-score +3.0 have been uncommon, suggesting limited room for further accumulation.
- If price stalls or reverses while net long positioning stays elevated, then this may be consistent with a late-cycle crowding condition where unwind risk rises. The 21.2% crowding ratio indicates concentrated exposure.
- If positioning rapidly retraces toward median over 2–3 weeks without a corresponding price move, then the repositioning may reflect tactical profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift in macro positioning.
Canadian Dollar (99th percentile, Z-score: +2.52)
- If the sustained build (13-week deviation +75,039) continues for another 2-3 weeks while price confirms with new highs, then this is consistent with a structural positioning trend that can persist beyond typical mean reversion windows.
- If price fails to confirm while positioning holds at 99th percentile, then the 12.4% crowding ratio — while lower than AUD — still indicates enough concentration to create unwind sensitivity if a catalyst emerges.
- If the positioning reverses sharply while price remains stable, then this may indicate position squaring ahead of event risk rather than a fundamental repositioning cycle.
Coffee C (1st percentile, Z-score: -2.29)
- If price breaks lower while positioning remains at 1st percentile, then the washed-out net long positioning may not provide much downside buffer — the Z-score of -2.29 indicates speculative interest is already near historical lows.
- If price stabilizes or rallies while positioning stays at this extreme, then this is consistent with past cycles where low speculative net long exposure has sometimes coincided with selling exhaustion phases — though timing cannot be determined from positioning alone.
- If positioning rebuilds rapidly toward median over 4-6 weeks, then the 7.8% crowding ratio suggests re-entry flows may not be concentrated enough to create significant price pressure, and the repositioning may lag price by several weeks.
Top Weekly Changes
Treasury markets showed the largest absolute positioning changes. 5Y Treasury net shorts deepened by -819,252 contracts vs the 4-week average and -854,618 vs the 13-week average, placing the market at 42nd percentile (near median). 2Y Treasury net shorts are now -1,348,036 contracts, sitting at 12th percentile with deviations of -350,386 (4-week) and -377,448 (13-week). The persistent short accumulation across the curve contrasts with 30Y Treasury, which moved to 90th percentile with net longs of 5,074 contracts.
Category Breakdown
FX: Australian Dollar (99th percentile) and Canadian Dollar (99th percentile) lead the extreme positioning cluster. British Pound sits at the opposite end at 5th percentile with net shorts of -57,072 contracts (-23.2% of open interest). Euro FX reached 94th percentile, indicating a broad net long bias across commodity and European currencies. Remaining 7 markets near median: Swiss Franc (19th percentile), New Zealand Dollar (35th), Brazilian Real (67th), Mexican Peso (66th), Japanese Yen (44th).
Metals: Silver (1st percentile) and Gold (2nd percentile) dominate the category with net long positioning at multi-year lows within this sample. Copper sits at 88th percentile, contrasting with the precious metals complex. Platinum remains near median at 23rd percentile. The disparity between industrial and precious metals positioning is now at one of the widest levels observed in the 106-week dataset.
Energy: Gasoline RBOB reached 99th percentile with net longs of 98,792 contracts (21.1% of open interest), while Natural Gas sits at 1st percentile with concentrated net shorts of -198,519 contracts (-12.3% of open interest, Z-score -2.61). The bifurcation within the energy complex is notable: refined products are heavily net long while Natural Gas is heavily net short. Remaining 3 markets near median: Ethanol (83rd), Heating Oil (68th), Crude Oil WTI (45th).
Grains: Wheat HRW reached 99th percentile with net longs of 8,266 contracts (2.7% of open interest). Soybean complex shows elevated positioning: Soybeans at 94th percentile, Soybean Oil at 93rd, Soybean Meal at 83rd. Sugar #11 (1st percentile) and Coffee C (1st percentile) sit at the opposite extreme with washed-out net long (Coffee) and concentrated net short (Sugar) positioning. Remaining 10 markets near median: Corn (62nd), Wheat SRW (92nd), Cocoa (5th), Lean Hogs (64th), Feeder Cattle (55th), Live Cattle (53rd).
Index: S&P 500 positioning sits at 8th percentile with net shorts of -187,614 contracts (-9.2% of open interest). The reading is -81,716 contracts below the full-period average (Z-score -1.34). Equity index positioning remains compressed near the low end of the 106-week range. Remaining 4 markets near median: Dow Jones (43rd), Nasdaq 100 (27th), Russell 2000 (72nd), VIX (34th).
Bonds: 30Y Treasury moved to 90th percentile with net longs of 5,074 contracts, while 2Y Treasury sits at 12th percentile with net shorts of -1,348,036 contracts (-29% of open interest). The curve positioning split is now near its widest level in the sample, with speculative shorts concentrated in the front end. Remaining 2 markets near median: 5Y Treasury (42nd), 10Y Treasury (50th).
Crypto: Bitcoin reached 93rd percentile with net longs of 1,172 contracts (5.1% of open interest, Z-score +1.67). Micro Ethereum remains near median at 22nd percentile.
Alignment Signal
Two markets show alignment this week, where large speculators and commercials are positioned on the same side, leaving small speculators holding the entire counterparty position.
Corn (62nd percentile): Both large speculators (+8,828 contracts, 0.5% of OI) and commercials (+12,455 contracts, 0.8% of OI) are net long. Small speculators therefore hold the entire net short position. The positioning percentile is near median, so this alignment does not coincide with an extreme crowding condition.
Russell 2000 (72nd percentile): Both large speculators (-2,931 contracts, -0.7% of OI) and commercials (-9,124 contracts, -2.3% of OI) are net short. Small speculators hold the entire net long position. Again, the percentile reading is near median, limiting the significance of the configuration.
Because futures markets are zero-sum, when two groups align on one side, the third group holds 100% of the other side. Historically, similar configurations have sometimes coincided with periods of elevated positioning volatility for the retail-held side — though this is a structural observation, not a directional indicator. This is a positioning configuration flag, not a directional indicator.
📍 Key Questions for Next Week
Will AUD positioning extend above Z-score +3.0, or does the 99th percentile mark a structural ceiling for this cycle? Will precious metals positioning stabilize at current lows or compress further toward net short territory? Does the treasury curve positioning split widen as 2Y shorts deepen while 30Y longs persist?
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Check back next Friday for the latest COT report analysis covering the week ending March 3, 2026.
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